Daily bias

Trend & Structure

Deciding the direction before you look for a trade

Daily bias is one decision made before the session: on the higher timeframe, is this thing more likely to go up or down today? You form it from structure — where the last swing high and low are, whether yesterday closed strong or weak, whether price is above or below the previous day's range — and then you only take trades in that direction. It isn't a prediction and it doesn't have to be right often. It exists to stop you taking both sides of the same chop and losing on both.

How to be wrong about it safely

Write the bias down before the open, along with the price that would prove it wrong — usually a close beyond the level the bias was built on. If that price trades, you flip or you stand aside; you do not argue with it. The trader who gets hurt by a bias is the one who formed it, watched it invalidate, and kept trading it anyway because they'd already told themselves a story. A bias with no invalidation price isn't a bias, it's a hope.