Expectancy
Risk & Psychology
The trader's true P&L
Expectancy = (win% × avg win) − (loss% × avg loss). Positive = you have a business; negative = no psychology fixes it. Judge yourself over 50-trade samples, never single trades.
Check yourself
System: 30% wins avg +3R, 70% losses avg −1R. Expectancy per trade:
- +0.2R correct
- −0.1R
- +0.9R
0.3×3 − 0.7×1 = +0.2R per trade. Losing 70% of the time, and profitable. That's the math the crowd never runs.
Learn this properly
This term has a full interactive lesson in Wick — the chart, the pattern to tap, and a live practice terminal to try it on. Free to start.
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