Wick

Sequence risk

Portfolio & Risk

When the bad years arrive matters

Two people can experience identical average returns and end up in very different places, purely because of the order the years arrived. A large fall early — especially while withdrawing money — does damage a later fall of the same size would not. Averages hide this completely.

Check yourself

Sequence risk is the danger that…

  1. Average returns are too low
  2. Bad years arrive at the worst time, especially early or while withdrawing correct
  3. Fees rise over time

The average return can be fine and the outcome still poor. Order matters when money is flowing in or out.

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