Wick

The break-even table

The Math of an Edge

What win rate each ratio needs

Every reward-to-risk ratio has a win rate it must beat to make money, and the numbers are more forgiving than beginners expect. At 1:1 you need to be right more than half the time. At 2:1 you need 33%. At 3:1 you need 25% — meaning you can be wrong three times out of four and still climb. This is why the build-the-trade drill scores your ratio: improving it lowers the bar you have to clear with skill.

Check yourself

At 3:1 reward to risk, roughly what win rate breaks you even?

  1. 50%
  2. 25% correct
  3. 75%

One winner of 3R covers three losers of 1R. Above 25% you are ahead — which is why chasing a higher win rate is usually the wrong optimisation.

Learn this properly

This term has a full interactive lesson in Wick — the chart, the pattern to tap, and a live practice terminal to try it on. Free to start.

Open the lesson

Related terms