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Process over outcome

Trader Psychology

Judge the plan, not the single result

A well-planned trade that hits its stop is still a good trade if the process was followed. A sloppy, rule-breaking trade that happens to win is still a bad trade. Judge the process, not just the single result.

Outcome-only judging breeds bad habits

Judging every trade purely by whether it won or lost pushes traders toward rule-breaking behavior that happens to work out short-term, like moving stops or oversizing, since a win covers up the bad process.

Sample size reveals the truth

Over a large enough sample of trades, a good process reliably produces good results. Over a single trade, anything can happen, a good process can lose and a bad process can win.

Check yourself

A trader follows their plan perfectly, but the trade still hits the stop-loss. This trade was…

  1. A good trade, since the process was followed correctly correct
  2. A bad trade, since it lost money
  3. Impossible to evaluate

A loss that followed the plan exactly is a process win, even though the single outcome was a loss.

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